nfb: Civil war in Iraq?

[Joe 1320]

I am posting this thread with the hopes that we can have a discussion on the topic, this board is usually exceptional in being able to debate without flames, so here goes....

Some time ago, I posted a comment in a thread regarding the strategic policy in Iraq. The comment that I made was that if we destabilize the government and military of Iraq, the resulting civil war would keep the terrorists fighting among themselves and it would keep them from bringing their fighting to our soil. It certainly appears as though the brink of civil war has indeed accomplished just that. My question for debate is where exactly can you draw the line and say that civil was has already began? While it is not a widespread divided war such as our own civil war, there are many factions within Iraq that are struggling (with violence) to capture power. Has civil war already begun or is it still on it's way? There is no doubt in my mind that if we pull our military, they will spend all their resources and time killing each other. Should a society like this really be allowed to settle their own conflict?

OK, let's not make this personal........ what do you think?

[Jeff_in_Atl]

Interesting.

I don't think there is a cival war over their now. It's not organized enough to be in that category.

Right now I don't know what will happen. But the plan is to get the government organized enough to be self supporting to be able to put down civil unrest like a coo.

My question is whether the people in the military and police will be loyal to the government of Iraq whoever that should be, or will it divide into faction and starting fighting among themselves. My opinion about the slowness of the training is that I think it has been harder to change the mindset of the military to support a government not a faction or a person. It's getting them to put aside their ethnic backgrounds is what I think is taking so long. But they have to be sure they are successful and not fooled into thinking they are successful. Could you imagine the Bush bashing if that were to happen.

[TODD 2000 V6 CAMARO]

I think civil war would definitely happen if the U.S. pulled out of Iraq right now, due to the power vacuum that would result. As far was whether we should promote that sort of thing, I think it would be more of a moral question than a military one. In my opinion, (and lack of real knowledge on the subject. ) a civil war could be a bad thing, and for a few reasons:
One, the result could be many many innocent Iraqis killed in the in-fighting. The warlords that would come out of the woodwork to grab for power, like in Afghanistan, would robably be very ruthless in the ways they would be willing to attain power.
Two, if the civil war had an end anywhere in the near future, unlike in Somalia, then you never know...we may end up with another Sadaam on our hands who would possibly be pissed off that the U.S. once again promised to stick around till the job was done and then jammed out again. Also, we would hurt our reputation in the world even more than it already is by leaving that country in a state of civil war instead of the democracy and peace we've promised.
I like the idea of letting the terrorist b*st#rds fight and kill each other, but in doing so we may piss off some other group of extremist islamics who will conduct more attacks on us for that very reason. I dunno...I think it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of thing. IMO the best thing we can do is finish what we started in Iraq, then move on to the next terrorist sponsoring country. Just my $0.02

[Red20170]

It's getting them to put aside their ethnic backgrounds is what I think is taking so long.

I agree Sunni, Shiites, Kurds, Christians. All under one government. Lebanon's government was the same way before their civil war broke out. But I'm thinking Iraq is different. Most of the insurgency are comprised of non Iraqis. The U.S. has killed Saudis, Egyptians, Syrians, UAE, Iranians. One side effect of this war is that terror groups are sending their people to Iraq for on the job training. At the expense of our Military. Saddam had 30+ years to turn that country into a dump. We only been there a couple of years. I think the majority of Iraqis want us to leave but at the same time they know that they still need us to help bring stability.

[Steel2686]

I think there has always been a "civil war" in Iraq. Anytime you have two or more groups who not only believe in their respective religion, but live by it, all run under a single Government, you'll have a receipe for war.... Especially given the corruption of the old Saddam regime. Many of the Iraqi populous was starving and very poor, and they have their leader building no less than seven temples for himself.

Another problem is how little the extremists have to occupy their time other than living every day to due their "mission of God". Think about it... Here, we have a very good life. We are on a message board, talking about a hobby we share a paaion for. Not a cheap hobby either. The Iraqi people live very basic lives compared to us. They were also brought up around a very militant regime. Seeing an Iraqi citizen with an AK-47 isn't uncommon. Imagine seeing an average American citizen on the streets of, say, Birmingham, Alabama with an M-16? The ATF would have snipers on every rooftop in seconds.

In short, I don't think a civil war is brewing. I think it's been there the whole time. Now is simply an opportune time for it to come to the surface.


Plus that heat can't be helping.