Do you guys feel that H5N1(Avian Influenza) poses a real threat of the next pandemic?

[fastTa]

It seems it's no longer a debate of being doom and gloom or not. This virus seems to be making an unfortunately realistic and threatening genetic reassortment and mutation. According to the WHO, even though the first reported case of H5N1 in a human was in 1997, that the virus is still essentialy new to the human immune system and hence we have no defense against the virus. Our antibodies cannot recognize H5N1. There have already been documented confirmations of human to human communication. I think the real worry is if it is able to go airborne. The WHO ,CDC, and Epidemiologists say that the best chance for H5N1 to go airborne is if manages to infiltrate a human host who already has the common flu. Let's pray it doesn't go airborne.

We have had 3 significant pandemics already in the last century. The 1918-1919 outbreak of influenza which killed an estimated 40 million, the 1957-1958 Influenza outbreak which killed more than 2 million, and then the 1968-1969 outbreak of SAR and Influenza related Pneumonia which killed an estimated 1 million. So pandemics are inevadable it seems. The WHO CDC, and various other governmental organizations have been developing an anti-viral named Tamiflu. They also have the capacity to develop more, but they say they can only produce an estimated 450 million individual vaccines in the next 6 months.

What do you guys think?

[Dave M]

Our health care system has come a long way since the last pandemics, but people are much more mobile and in much closer contact now than ever before. The threat is certainly there, but I don't think it's critical. Or, at least, not as critical as the media has portrayed it.

I believe most of the world will handle the outbreak if and when it comes. There will be regions or countries that will take a heavy toll, of course.

The CDC's website has a lot of information on the disease.

[fastTa]

Only thing that concerns me is that if it is able to genetically reassort, we as the world will not be able to contain it. It is much too virulent and pathogenic to innoculate the first infected and provide adequate vaccinations for the rest. Even though as of right now it has only shown the ability to spread through direct human contact with the infected bird, and in rare isolated cases direct human to human, the H5N1 virus can live without a host for up to 24 hours. Plenty enough time for rapid communication throughout airports, airplanes, borders, malls, etc.

Thus far it has not shown any genetic signs of orginating it's protein makeup from that of a human. This is tentatively good as this keeps it labeled a epizootic and not a epidemic or worse a pandemic, but human forms of seven of the ten amino acids have already been identified in currently circulating H5N1 resulting from findings from autopsies performed on the already 71 confirmed H5N1 related deaths. The HA protein in the Genotype Z virus prefers a binding preference for alpha 2,6 sialic acid, the predominant sialic acid in the human respiratory tract.

In avian virus, the HA protein preferentially binds to alpha 2,3 sialic acid, which is the major form in the avian enteric tract. The CDC and St Jude's Children's Hospital have proven that it only takes a single amino acid change to sway this binding preference. So with just a few cycles of mutations, which are very quick and common, this has the potential to become 1918-like.

[Red20170]

Yep..
Too close to the Spanish flu for me. Although we do not have soldiers packed in cargo ships like we did during WWI, Spreading it like wildfire. I think Good hygiene and quarantine practices should help. Plus several packs of "N100" masks. Aren't a bad idea either....

[fastTa]

Yep..
Too close to the Spanish flu for me. Although we do not have soldiers packed in cargo ships like we did during WWI, Spreading it like wildfire. I think Good hygiene and quarantine practices should help. Plus several packs of "N100" masks. Aren't a bad idea either....

Yep, didn't help that their were millions of rotting corpses floating throughout the seas going from country to country during WWI. I just hope everyone takes this serious and prepares for this. Could get nasty.

Did you know that the coined term "Spanish Flu" was actually a misnomer. There was never any concrete evidence that suggested the pandemic originated in Spain or was somehow more severe in that country.

Spain was neutral during WWI, but even so, they had extensive media throughout the war and pandemically affected regions. The first cases were detected in Europe and the USA. It is said that the "Spanish Flu" association was coined because of the strong influence of Spanish reporters covering the virus.

[Roger in Kensington]

Sorry, folks, but while this bears watching and I'm not unconcerned, I really am not losing any sleep over this. I've lived through so many hyped "we're-all-doomed" stories that this rates little more than a "ho-hum."

In 1968, we were all going do die really, really soon from overpopulation. Famine was the next thing, with William and Paul Paddock writing a book in 1970 with the charming title of Famine, 1975! (note the exclamation mark).

Massive earthquakes would be unleashed if we tested a nuclear warhead under Kamchitka Island off the coast of Alaska.

There was the 1978 Swine Flu epidemic that Jerry Ford hyped into a mass-immunization campaign where far more people contracted influenza from the vaccine than did from the bug itself.

In 1973, we had both the Great Comet Kouhoutek as well as The Great Toilet Paper Shortage.

Then there was the Club of Rome predicting world-wide catastrophe in a book entitled The Limits to Growth.

Anyone remember that if Ronald Reagan got elected we would die horribly in a nuclear winter?

Wasn't it just a dozen or so years ago when we were ALL going to get AIDS?

And weren't we recently treated to apophal tales of impending annihilation from an approaching asteroid?

Then just two weeks ago, we were told that global warming will cause the ice caps to melt, the oceans to rise, which will precipitate a new Ice Age and we'll all freeze to death.

Someone's always hyping gloom and doom . . . and more often than not padding his bank account in the process.

The one really frightening thing that did happen in my lifetime was in October 1962 when the US and the USSR were on the brink of nuclear war.

Oh, and one other thing: the Pittsburgh Brewing Company has recently declared bankruptcy.

What the hell is the world coming to?

[Dave M]

Sorry, folks, but while this bears watching and I'm not unconcerned, I really am not losing any sleep over this. I've lived through so many hyped "we're-all-doomed" stories that this rates little more than a "ho-hum."

In 1968, we were all going do die really, really soon from overpopulation. Famine was the next thing, with William and Paul Paddock writing a book in 1970 with the charming title of Famine, 1975! (note the exclamation mark).

Massive earthquakes would be unleashed if we tested a nuclear warhead under Kamchitka Island off the coast of Alaska.

There was the 1978 Swine Flu epidemic that Jerry Ford hyped into a mass-immunization campaign where far more people contracted influenza from the vaccine than did from the bug itself.

In 1973, we had both the Great Comet Kouhoutek as well as The Great Toilet Paper Shortage.

Then there was the Club of Rome predicting world-wide catastrophe in a book entitled The Limits to Growth.

Anyone remember that if Ronald Reagan got elected we would die horribly in a nuclear winter?

Wasn't it just a dozen or so years ago when we were ALL going to get AIDS?

And weren't we recently treated to apophal tales of impending annihilation from an approaching asteroid?

Then just two weeks ago, we were told that global warming will cause the ice caps to melt, the oceans to rise, which will precipitate a new Ice Age and we'll all freeze to death.

Someone's always hyping gloom and doom . . . and more often than not padding his bank account in the process.

The one really frightening thing that did happen in my lifetime was in October 1962 when the US and the USSR were on the brink of nuclear war.

Oh, and one other thing: the Pittsburgh Brewing Company has recently declared bankruptcy.

What the hell is the world coming to?

Roger, don't forget Y2K!! What a disaster that was supposed to be!

[bru333]

Sorry, folks, but while this bears watching and I'm not unconcerned, I really am not losing any sleep over this. I've lived through so many hyped "we're-all-doomed" stories that this rates little more than a "ho-hum."

{snip}

There was the 1978 Swine Flu epidemic that Jerry Ford hyped into a mass-immunization campaign where far more people contracted influenza from the vaccine than did from the bug itself.

I'd forgotten all about this...but still...anytime someone asks me if I'm getting a flu shot I tell them "No. I don't feel like getting the flu this year."

Oh, and one other thing: the Pittsburgh Brewing Company has recently declared bankruptcy.

What the hell is the world coming to?

The world as we know it willl now come to an end!



I got to go buy more ammo now.....

[fastTa]

Sorry, folks, but while this bears watching and I'm not unconcerned, I really am not losing any sleep over this. I've lived through so many hyped "we're-all-doomed" stories that this rates little more than a "ho-hum."

In 1968, we were all going do die really, really soon from overpopulation. Famine was the next thing, with William and Paul Paddock writing a book in 1970 with the charming title of Famine, 1975! (note the exclamation mark).

Massive earthquakes would be unleashed if we tested a nuclear warhead under Kamchitka Island off the coast of Alaska.

There was the 1978 Swine Flu epidemic that Jerry Ford hyped into a mass-immunization campaign where far more people contracted influenza from the vaccine than did from the bug itself.

In 1973, we had both the Great Comet Kouhoutek as well as The Great Toilet Paper Shortage.

Then there was the Club of Rome predicting world-wide catastrophe in a book entitled The Limits to Growth.

Anyone remember that if Ronald Reagan got elected we would die horribly in a nuclear winter?

Wasn't it just a dozen or so years ago when we were ALL going to get AIDS?

And weren't we recently treated to apophal tales of impending annihilation from an approaching asteroid?

Then just two weeks ago, we were told that global warming will cause the ice caps to melt, the oceans to rise, which will precipitate a new Ice Age and we'll all freeze to death.

Someone's always hyping gloom and doom . . . and more often than not padding his bank account in the process.

The one really frightening thing that did happen in my lifetime was in October 1962 when the US and the USSR were on the brink of nuclear war.

Oh, and one other thing: the Pittsburgh Brewing Company has recently declared bankruptcy.

What the hell is the world coming to?

It only takes one Roger, remember that.

Should people become unconventionally anxious over this? Nah. Should we be concerned? Yes. I will not lose any sleep over this myself, and I have seen my fair share of the hyped doom and gloom scenarios fall short, but that in no way should allow one to fall into a false sense of security just because that's the way it has always been in the past. I am no doom and gloomer by any stretch of the imagination, however it is always wiser to be better safe than sorry.

As long as this virus does not manage to find a way to efficiently communicate from one human to another, we will likely not have a pandemic on our hands. We should pray that this is the case.

[fastTa]

My sister has been a nurse for quite some time now, and I can assure you that the Flu shot does far more good than harm. Some people are prone to getting the full fledged flu as a result of getting the shot, but they are without a question the minority.

[Red20170]

Flu shots still contain Thimerisol. No thanks....

[fastTa]

Flu shots still contain Thimerisol. No thanks....

Most vaccinations have not contained Thimerosal for over 6-7 years now. Especially Influenza vaccinations. Even when they did, there were only extremely rare instances where a particular patient would experience an adverse reaction, and even in these rare reactions, they were mainly limited to a mild allergic reaction at or around the point of injection. Furthermore in the majority of recent (1995 to present)Influenza vaccinations, the relative percentage of concentration of Thimerosal was normally 0.01%. So a 0.5mL vaccine containing even the highest dose of 0.01%, Thimerosal as a preservative contained no more than 50 micrograms of thimerosal per 0.5 mL dose, or 25 micrograms of mercury because Thimerosal is approximately 50% mercury by weight. In other words, no where near enough to cause any harm to a human whatsoever.

Mercury is not near the concern as methylmercury. You are exposed to a much more harmful neurotoxin called methylmercury right at home. And it is in everyday common tap water.

The reason you or others may have the mistakenly negative perception of Thimerosal is because back in the 60's and 70's when infants and children were given their routine immunizations, (Gamma globulin, Hepatitis B immune globulin specifically), and choramphenicol for children with tympanostomy tubes, the percentages of Thimerosal were 1000 times the concentration they have been during the past few decades.

Most vaccinations to date now have perfectly safe synthetic preservatives or have been engineered in such a way that they do not need them at all. Todays flushots are perfectly safe in every way.

[Dave M]

I'd forgotten all about this...but still...anytime someone asks me if I'm getting a flu shot I tell them "No. I don't feel like getting the flu this year."

Just because you get the flu after you get a flu shot doesn't mean the shot caused the flu. The two events are not necessarily related. The shot could have been ineffective or not been administered in time and you end up getting sick in spite of having gotten a flu shot. Influenza vaccines are made up of dead viruses, from which it is impossible to get the virus.

[Roger in Kensington]

Just because you get the flu after you get a flu shot doesn't mean the shot caused the flu. The two events are not necessarily related. The shot could have been ineffective or not been administered in time and you end up getting sick in spite of having gotten a flu shot. Influenza vaccines are made up of dead viruses, from which it is impossible to get the virus.

Yes, and I get a flu shot every year, but you may not be old enough to remember that the mass-vaccination progam for the "Swine flu" (in 1976, not '78 as I originally stated) was a real debacle, mainly because the feared "sky-is-falling" epidemic never materialized.

It left a lot of people wondering if the government wasn't just "ing wolf" (with apologies to Ken).

[Red20170]

Most vaccinations have not contained Thimerosal for over 6-7 years now. Especially Influenza vaccinations. Even when they did, there were only extremely rare instances where a particular patient would experience an adverse reaction, and even in these rare reactions, they were mainly limited to a mild allergic reaction at or around the point of injection. Furthermore in the majority of recent (1995 to present)Influenza vaccinations, the relative percentage of concentration of Thimerosal was normally 0.01%. So a 0.5mL vaccine containing even the highest dose of 0.01%, Thimerosal as a preservative contained no more than 50 micrograms of thimerosal per 0.5 mL dose, or 25 micrograms of mercury because Thimerosal is approximately 50% mercury by weight. In other words, no where near enough to cause any harm to a human whatsoever.

Mercury is not near the concern as methylmercury. You are exposed to a much more harmful neurotoxin called methylmercury right at home. And it is in everyday common tap water.

The reason you or others may have the mistakenly negative perception of Thimerosal is because back in the 60's and 70's when infants and children were given their routine immunizations, (Gamma globulin, Hepatitis B immune globulin specifically), and choramphenicol for children with tympanostomy tubes, the percentages of Thimerosal were 1000 times the concentration they have been during the past few decades.

Most vaccinations to date now have perfectly safe synthetic preservatives or have been engineered in such a way that they do not need them at all. Todays flushots are perfectly safe in every way.

Good reading...
I was aware that most vaccinations are methyl mercury free. The one that I still believe contained it was flu vaccinations and my doc confirmed this. But I will research this more. The other one that brings concern is the MMR vaccination. I know there is still debate between the connection MMR and autism. My county has the high rate of autism in the state. I'm till my kid is a little older before he gets his MMR. Infact My doc is the only one locally that gives MMR shot as individual vaccinations. Just piece of mind for me. Nice to see other folks not with their head in the sand on these issues.

And it is in everyday common tap water.

I hope my Big Berkey filters that out. I hate being reminded whats in tap water.