nfb: Mark my words.....

[Jeff_in_Atl]

I heard something interesting the other day by the guy who played Trapper on Mash. He said lets do the math here. If you have a car that gets 20mpg and you drive 20,000 miles a year at $2.00 a gallon you spend $2000 a year in gasoline. If you bought a car that got 40 mpg you only save $1000 a year. It takes a long time to recoup that cost since the hybrids cost more than regular cars.

Here is my example.
Toyota Prias base costs $21,865
Toyota Corolla base cost $15,390
Difference=$6,475
So it would take you 6.5 years to recoup the extra cost in buying the hybrid (If the cost of fuel does not go up in that 6.5 years which we know it will).

Honda Civic hybrid $19,900
Honda Civic conventional $13,260
Difference =$6,640

[Dave M]

An interesting article on CNN about people "modding" their hybrids to achieve up to 250 mpg.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/08/15/h....ap/index.html

[Rhode Island Red]

yup,

to sum it up, people may save everday out of pocket petrol expenses with a hybrid, but they always forget they usually can save even more $$$ (immediately and long-term) by being a more frugal jelopie buyer.

[Dave M]

The American Petroleum Institute just announced that gasoline demand for July dropped 0.8% and overall petroleum demand for July dropped 3%. So it appears we may have finally hit a price point where people alter their behaviors and demand begins to drop. This could mean a softening of prices in the future.

[Jeff_in_Atl]

An interesting article on CNN about people "modding" their hybrids to achieve up to 250 mpg.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/08/15/h....ap/index.html

"The extra batteries let him store extra power by plugging the car into a wall outlet at his home in this San Francisco suburb -- all for about a quarter."

I question the cost of it only being a quarter but lets go with it.

"The extra batteries let Gremban drive for 20 miles with a 50-50 mix of gas and electricity."

Let's figure his cost per mile.
"it gets the typical Prius fuel efficiency of around 45 mpg."
So in that 20 miles he's used 1/2 gallon of gas at $2.50 a gallon =$1.25. Add in the quarter for the electricity and it's $1.50 vs $2.50 for the regular Prias. So he saved $1.00 per 20 miles. I drive 12 miles to work everyday so that's 25 miles per day. I would save $1.25 per day. A work year is 260 days minus vacation and sick days. I get 4 weeks so call it 240 not including any sick days. I would save $300 per year with his car.

"spent several months and $3,000 tinkering with his car." It would take me 10 years to recoup that cost. Not worth it.

But I understand it has to start somewhere. I get about 17 mpg in my 300 horse Camaro. Going to his car that does 0-60 and 15 minutes to save a little over $300 a year just aint worth it.

[Crazy Canuk]

Well GM is doing there part to ease the need at the pumps with the new H3 Hummer :P

It gets a muched improved 19mpg on the highway (compaired to the h2) and its 29-39k so alot more people can buy them.

Another thing to think about with gas prices is that this time around the gas price rise is because of demand not a outside event that limits supply. So companies can afford to spend a bit more on gas because there still making money and giving people jobs to pay there gas. There will be a limit though where demands for products arn't going to be there because people will spend there cash on gas and not in stores or on trips.

All the feds are watching closely because the ecconomy is just recovering from the .com bust (although acting a bit strange at times) and they dont want another resession.

[Joe 1320]

"spent several months and $3,000 tinkering with his car." It would take me 10 years to recoup that cost. Not worth it.

But I understand it has to start somewhere. I get about 17 mpg in my 300 horse Camaro. Going to his car that does 0-60 and 15 minutes to save a little over $300 a year just aint worth it.

That's the catch 22. It is exactly the reason I purchased a beater honda Accord for $2000, put $500 back into it for basic repairs to put it into decent shape. It gets me 30 combined, 35 highway mileage. I can burn alot of gas for the difference in the investment. It still doesn't solve the dependance on oil though. I've been tempted to sell off a few cars and get into a Toyota Prius. 60 mpg city is exactly what I need as a daily beater. I just can't justify spending $20K to save money, it's is an oxymoron.

[Dave-S]

The SUV/Truck craze will only take a serious hit if there are gasoline shortages. That's what happened back in the 70's with gas guzzling cars. It's one thing forking out the bucks for gasoline but quite another when you can't get enough gas. To be sure, there will be a slowdown in the truck/SUV market as long as gas prices continue to go up.....but if they level off or go down, people will continue to buy them.

By the way, I firmly believe gas shortages will be on us sooner than we expect. As others have pointed out there are major capacity issues in the refining operations around the world and with countries like China and India just beginning to use large amounts of fuel, it does not bode well for the future.

[Rhode Island Red]

Take note that we currently aready import 10% of our GASOLINE .. yup gasoline.. the aleady refined, ready to fuel your car stuff... and the newest (so I made up a word) quest to open a brand new Refinery in the southwest (Arizona I think) the man has spent a decade... A DECADE just to get past all the paperwork, epa filings, studies.. It should open, if everything goes smoothly in Two-Thousand fifteen 2015 ... if everything goes smoothly from here on out... and we need 40+ more of them

A future gas shortage is almost assured at this point in time

source: ABC news tonight this past week

[markd79ta]

I can't see SUVs going away unless the populous is ready to re-embrace the station wagon. A lot of families, especially in suburbia, need these large vehicles for the ever growing number of kids transported. The biggest problem with the SUVs is the automakers not putting the technology for fuel efficiency in them. The automakers are really at fault for causing this problem. I am furious at GM for not pursuing the XV8 concept that got 30+mpg in a Silverado test. I think the Europeans and DC will soon rule the SUV market with their clean efficient diesel engines. These engines, that they have been working on for the past three decades, will find a home in the SUVs. I think the Jeep Liberty with the new Mercedes diesel is incredible with its 27 city and 29 highway rating. I am sure we will soon see diesels in the Ram 1500 trucks as well as the Durangos. Additionally, the Chrysler 300 is suppose to be offered with a diesel in the next two years. My x drives a VW Passat TDI and loves it...it gets 30mpg in the city and over 40 on the highway.

Another major problem that was mentioned in this thread is the stupidity of gasoline refinement in this country. That fact that we refine and blend fuel 50,000 different ways in this country is completely stupid. The three octane levels along with their blend of Ethanol should be set in stone in all regions...that would do a lot to drive down the cost along with giving the automakers a baseline for tuning and compression levels.

If I ever have time, I have a 350 and all the parts necessary to make an ethanol motor for my old K5. Hopefully, I will get to that project soon.

[97LT1Z28]

You know, our country could save tons of fuel if companies would let their employees work from home! Just about everyone has a PC at home - it's possible!

[Dave M]

"The extra batteries let him store extra power by plugging the car into a wall outlet at his home in this San Francisco suburb -- all for about a quarter."

I question the cost of it only being a quarter but lets go with it.

"The extra batteries let Gremban drive for 20 miles with a 50-50 mix of gas and electricity."

Let's figure his cost per mile.
"it gets the typical Prius fuel efficiency of around 45 mpg."
So in that 20 miles he's used 1/2 gallon of gas at $2.50 a gallon =$1.25. Add in the quarter for the electricity and it's $1.50 vs $2.50 for the regular Prias. So he saved $1.00 per 20 miles. I drive 12 miles to work everyday so that's 25 miles per day. I would save $1.25 per day. A work year is 260 days minus vacation and sick days. I get 4 weeks so call it 240 not including any sick days. I would save $300 per year with his car.

"spent several months and $3,000 tinkering with his car." It would take me 10 years to recoup that cost. Not worth it.

But I understand it has to start somewhere. I get about 17 mpg in my 300 horse Camaro. Going to his car that does 0-60 and 15 minutes to save a little over $300 a year just aint worth it.

No offense Jeff, but I think your numbers are flawed. The Prius in question gets 80 mpg for the first 20 miles, only after that does it get the "typical Prius fuel efficiency", so in your example he would use just 1/4 gallon of gas one way, assuming he could plug it in before his return trip. And the normal Prius woulda use 1/2 gallon of gas during the 20 mile trip, not 1 gallon. The math stills comes out about the same, but what about the cars that supposedly get 250 mpg? I would have liked to hear more about them in this article. And like you said, it's got to start somewhere. As the technology improves and matures and the cost comes down, it will make more sense in the future. Not to mention, hybrids aren't really about saving the user money, they're about saving gas.

I think there's a real future in this country for the new clean diesel technology coming out soon, and for bio-diesel. Hybrids are a bit of a stopgap measure until we get to fuel cell vehicles and other zero-polluting vehicles in the future.

[Jeff_in_Atl]

No offense Jeff, but I think your numbers are flawed. The Prius in question gets 80 mpg for the first 20 miles, only after that does it get the "typical Prius fuel efficiency", so in your example he would use just 1/4 gallon of gas one way, assuming he could plug it in before his return trip. And the normal Prius woulda use 1/2 gallon of gas during the 20 mile trip, not 1 gallon. The math stills comes out about the same, but what about the cars that supposedly get 250 mpg? I would have liked to hear more about them in this article. And like you said, it's got to start somewhere. As the technology improves and matures and the cost comes down, it will make more sense in the future. Not to mention, hybrids aren't really about saving the user money, they're about saving gas.

I think there's a real future in this country for the new clean diesel technology coming out soon, and for bio-diesel. Hybrids are a bit of a stopgap measure until we get to fuel cell vehicles and other zero-polluting vehicles in the future.

You are correct. I screwed that up. (being a male I'm not real good with multi-tasking.) But the difference still isn't significant enough to me. That's not even considering the safety of a Prias is not even close to the same as an expedition. The performance and the looks are really bad too.

I have to say I've been considering diesel too. Especially for a pickup/SUV. I wouldn't consider getting a gas engine in a full size. I saw the Dodge RT10 gets 9/12 mpg. That is about the same as a tractor trailer gets. Wow is that bad. I think it is 2008 when the fuel manufacturers have to switch to a clean burning diesel and they have to start passing emissions.

I was thinking about a diesel version of the Corvette.

[MN6WS6]

And the reason the hybrid that he modded gets 80 MPG is because the first 20 miles or so is purely on electric power . So, let's think about something. I drive about 20 miles to work every day. I could drive to work solely on electricity, recharge at work, and 20 miles back home. I could use no gas at all (except for on the interstate when the gas engine kicks in), so a modded hybrid could save you a TON of money in a short amount of time.

I've actually thought about building my own hybrid, since Alabama laws are so lax in what you have to have to be street legal. You could do a battery bank with electric power on the rear wheels, and a motorcycle engine on a FWD set up that could power the front wheels when extra power is needed. The motorcycle engine could run at idle from the moment you start the vehicle to run water for a heater and keep the engine cool, a small AC compressor if need be, and an alternator to run what little accessories you need and also recharge the batteries while you're driving (it won't keep them at full capacity, but it would recharge while you're sitting still and also take care of some of the battery drain while the batteries are powering the rear wheels). Considering my 1100cc bike gets 35 MPG with me riding it, and about 40 if you granny it, this setup could easily get 60-80 MPG because the gas engine would be at idle most of the time. Obviously you wouldn't take any road trips in it, but for one person back and forth to work, I think it would be a good idea. So basically, it'd be a Legends car with windows, AC, and battery driven rear wheels.

[Dave M]

And let's not forget those numbers you quoted Jeff ($300/yr) are over and above a regular Prius, which is already fuel efficient, and not over and above a regular car that might get half of what a regular Prius gets. If you trade in a $20,000 car or small SUV that gets a combined 20 mpg for a $20,000 Prius or Civic Hybrid, and then spend 3,000 modding it to get~80 mpg, you're going to use just 1/4 the gas of your previous car. If you figure about 1,000 miles a month of driving (which is about average) that original car would use 50 gallons of gas, which is $125 worth of gas at $2.50/gallon. The 80 mpg Civic/Prius would use just 12.5 gallons of gas in that same month, or $31.25 worth. That's a difference of 93.75/month, or $1125 every year! It begins to make financial sense then. That's assuming you're not paying anything to finance the vehicle because of the trade-in. Even buying the vehicle outright becomes attractive, assuming you're keeping the car several years. Even without the financial factor, you're saving 450 gallons of gas and pollutants a year!